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  • Drought risk looms in NZ
  • Murray Goulburn settles with ASIC
  • Global trade up 4.5% YTD
  • US imported beef prices ease


Media Release
Thursday 23 November 2017

  • NZ October milk supply up 2.9%
  • Murray Goulburn settles with ASIC
  • GDT index down 3.4%
  • US imported beef prices jump


The traded commodity dairy market has been a little quiet over the last 2 weeks with many NZX participants in Singapore the week before last for the dairy conference which is now locked in many diaries (I must put it in mine!)

However, there is a good deal going on in corporate, financial and commodity markets more generally so I thought that I would focus on a few of these things, augmented by some of my favourite charts from the last 2 weeks. As a result there is probably a good deal more “editorial” than usual so feel free to ignore!


  • Payout likely to weaken
  • Chinese imports to fall
  • US imported beef prices stable
  • Global wheat stocks set record
  • Fonterra confirms NZ$6.75kgMS
  • Weak La Niña (may be) on the cards
  • GDT drops 3.5% 
  • Investors buy farms on low yields

A bit of a longer commentary this week but there has been a 3 week gap since the last auction and there has been a reasonable amount happening!

Volatility in the market remains contained but the last month has effectively seen WMP prices drop back from the $3,000/t - $3,300/t trading range into a $2,900/t - $3,000t range.

As the chart below illustrates (WMP prices in yellow and SMP prices in pink), notwithstanding this move lower in WMP, the market does still feel a little like it is defying gravity and pressure remains for prices to soften somewhat further.

  • NZ Milk down in September
  • Ministry for Primary Industries splits
  • NZX to launch skim milk powder options
  • Oceania Dairy expands NZ operations
  • Labour forms government
  • Primary exports to rise
  • Milk price outlook weakens
  • Global trade up 5.8%
  • Rain cuts Fonterra’s milk output
  • Australian milk production flat in August
  • GDT reflects EU blues
  • Modest rise in 2018 EU sowings  


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